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40+ Fave's are M/L favorites that are found in at least one of the 10 statistical pools over 40%. The more the 40+ hits, the stronger the selection. Faveulator even has 3 statistical win pools well over 50%.
The top section of the Fave Sheet shows the Code 1 Statistics along with the Supreme Fave, Ultimate Fave, Signature Sprint, Signature Route, Over Under and Hot Spot Faves. The track name, first post time, day, weather forecast and date are listed.
The middle section of the Fave Tip Sheet includes mostly information on the M/L Favorite. Race #, Runner #, M/L favorites name, 40+ hits, 40+ selection, Check mark fave, M/L odds, Days since last race, Date of last race, Starts, Wins, Places, Shows, Fave Line, Earnings per start, Race type, Distance and Surface, Min Fave Pool, Max Fave Pool and Avg Fave Pools, Heat degree and Field size. Just some extra horse racing data that may be helpful in making a last second handicapping decision.
The Hottest Faves are listed in order and the High Fave or Firestorm Fave is also displayed.
The Hottest to Coldest Faves are ranked in order. The race card vitals display how hot the card is compared to other race cards. There are 5 heat tiers and the statistics are shown for the first 3. In tier 1 for instance, at least one of the faves in the tier will win 75%, place 91% and show a whopping 97%. The strike rates naturally decrease as the Fave's cool down.
The bottom section of the Fave Sheet shows the Over Under statistics and also includes the Diamond Fave, Golden Fave and Pace Infusion Faves along with the Cold and Ice Cold Faves. The Exotic wager grid is also displayed.
Supreme Fave's don't come up very often, considering they have to be best of every Faveulator factor. Faveulator's top choice.
Ultimate Fave's sport a win percentage over 50% and a place percentage just over 75%. They are definitely the Ultimate Fave.
The Signature Sprint is a select Fave that has some special requirements. It has to be a Sprint race with 8 starters or less. Boasting a win percentage over 55% and placing over 85%, you can see why Teacher Richard puts his name on it.
The Signature Route Fave has special requirements like a route race and a field of 8 runners or less. Routes are a little more difficult to handicap than sprints, but we still hit over 40%.
Over Under Fave's evolved from evaluating statistical patterns found in the Over Under show percentages. Over Under Fave's proudly sport a win percentage around 48%.
Hot Spot Fave's are simply that, a Hot Spot in the Code 1 show data. Hot Spot Fave's hit the winner's circle over 45% of the time.
The High Fave is just that, the highest heat degree on the race card. Not every race card has a super best play to choose from, but the High Fave still hits a little over 44%.
The Diamond Fave is an extension of the Golden Fave with one extra requirement. Diamond Fave's win around 43% of the time.
The Golden Fave is a decent play with a strike rate just under 40%. The Golden Fave is a selection that is over the national average in all three win, place and show statistics.
The Firestorm Fave is actually the High Fave with a certain heat degree requirement. Not all Fave sheets will have a Firestorm Fave, but when they show up, they will have their pictures taken a whopping 46% of the time.
The Inferno Fave hovers around a 40% win percentage. The Inferno Fave will also be the actual post time favorite 76% of the time.
The Blazing Fave will hit the winners circle 35% of the time, while being the post time favorite 70% of the time.
The Hot Fave is a poor play resulting from fairly competitive races that are harder to predict. Looking for potential prices? This might be the scenario you are looking for. Only a 27% win rate and a low post time rate of 56%. You can call this Fave a Pretender.
The Pace Infusion Fave is a new concept with Faveulator, featuring a revolutionary idea infusing figures into pace figures to dial in a hot spot. When the 1st fave is selected it wins around 40%, 2nd fave 34% and 3rd fave 20%.
The 2nd Fave is a great play to keep your eye on. Currently, the 2nd Fave will have you cashing winning tickets 37% of the time with some potiental value. Keep your eyes peeled for the 2nd Fave and the Pace Infusion 2nd Fave.
The Cold Fave is one you might want to avoid. Although, the Cold Fave may sometimes slip into other high strike pools, Cold Fave's only enter the winners circle about 25%. One of our Pretenders.
The Ice Cold Fave is the lowest of the low. You'll only hit the tellers window 20% of the time. Playing this one on a regular basis will surely have you headed to the ATM. Definitely, a true Pretender.
With over 20 years of horse handicapping experience, 3 years as an OTB in-house handicapper and recent Santa Anita Showvivor most consecutive winners champion. Teacher Richard has witnessed virtually every method, formula, system and mistake out there. Whether it be Quarter horses, Paint and Appaloosa's, Thoroughbreds, Standardbreds, Arabians or Mules, he has been on both sides of the window thousands of times. His friends in the industry include all walks of life from professional handicappers, horse owners, trainers, jockeys, track junkies and OTB weekend warriors. There is however, one thing his OTB friends all have in common, they always ask him the same question. Who's going to win this one?
Having the need for adventure and time away to write a couple of books on handicapping, he has spent the last 5 years of his life away from the windows teaching High School in South East Asia enabling him to research the game with unbiased honesty. For the last two years, Faveulator has been a work in progress while sending Fave sheets to his old OTB buddies back home. After countless requests, Teacher Richard is now offering his Hot Fave's to horse players around the country.
Once you start to see the power of a statistical advantage, you'll be asking yourself the same question Teacher Richard did. Where were the Faveulator Hot Fave Sheets 20 years ago? Give Faveulator a try today and start seeing that advantage.
Morning Line Fave Par Speed Analysis Philosophy:
The basic idea behind the Morning Line Fave Par Speed Analysis is trying to separate M/L favorite contenders from pretenders. This information can be very handy to have when putting together exotic wager tickets. Statistically knowing the best time to single M/L favorites or to include multiple runners can be a great horse playing asset.
Par Speed Analysis:
What is Par Speed? Why is it important? Par Speeds are one of the most neglected figures on a racing form. The Par Speed is the average winning speed for that type of race and the pace or speed that is expected from a horse to put out a winning performance. If a horse has never run a speed equal to or above the Par Speeds, the odds of winning diminish, especially if other horses in the field have ran over any of them recently. The Par Speeds include E1 E2 LP and SPD. (Early, early/mid, late pace and overall speed) With Par Speed Analysis, all horses are considered equal as long as they are equal to or above the specific Par Speed. This formula does not consider a horse more dominant because it ran a 101 E2 speed and the E2 par speed is 95 compared to a horse that ran a 96 E2 speed. If playing the horse with the highest pace or speed figure was the best play, every horse player in the country would be a millionaire, if it was that easy. This is why so many single factor players are headed for the ATM by the end of the day.
To be able to effectively compile statistics for Par Speeds, we need to have special binary codes to be able to catalog the stats for every possible situation that may evolve. First, I wrote 8 codes that cover the possible combinations for the top 3 favorites on the M/L, only six of these codes are used for the 4th and 5th M/L favorites. For example, if the top fave is the only horse in the field to run equal to or over E1 and LP, but some of the other horses have run equal to or over E2 and SPD, the code for the 1st fave may look like this 2 3 2 3. The codes use the digits 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and 9. All top 5 M/L favorites have a code that is cataloged with the final WPS statistics attached to each code. Second, 77 different codes were developed using variables of the original eight codes to cover as many situations as possible. Every one of these codes is cataloged as well, with the final WPS statistics attached to each code. For example, a code may be as simple as the code shown previously or made simpler such as 2 3, 3 2, 2 3, 2 2, 3 3 or even adding the numbers together to form a total of 8 to 36. Third, the top 5 M/L field code is also used and statistically cataloged and may look like this: E1 3 3 3 5 5, E2 8 8 8 8 8, LP 2 5 5 5 5, SPD 3 3 5 3 5. Simple variables are also made from these codes as well. Using this method, we can now handicap each new race pulling up the average WPS statistics for each set of possible code combinations to better understand the probability of each M/L favorite and the other four horses, as well.
Code 1 (top stats on the Fave sheet) displays the WPS averages of the original 8 codes and the additional 77 variable codes combined. Code 2 (not shown on the Fave sheet) uses the statistics from the field code variables. Code 3 (bottom stats on the Fave sheet) is a formulation using over under calculations. Each runner is evaluated against the other four horses, using the figures of how much each runner is over or under the overall raw statistics compared to the statistics from Code 1 for each position.
Originally, statistics were used from 2000 random races without any Top 5 M/L contender scratches covering 25 different tracks from the U.S.A. and Canada. Currently, new statistical high strike rate patterns in the data are used to provide more 40+ win percentage pools to choose from. We have now developed, at least 10 pools with 40% or higher win rates. Three of the pools win over 50% of the time.
To make the selection sheet easier to understand, different degrees of heat are used to illustrate which M/L favorite has the best chance of hitting the board and are listed on the Fave sheet from HOTTEST to COLDEST. Simply put, the higher the heat the higher the win percentage. Different formulations and statistical data are used to determine the other possible best play selections such as the Supreme Fave, the Ultimate Fave, Over Under Faves, Hot Spot Faves, Diamond Faves, Golden Faves, Signature Sprint, Signature Route and Check mark Faves. 40+Faves: 40+ Faves are M/L favorites that are found in at least one of the 10 statistical pools over 40%. The more 40+ hits, the stronger the selection.
Pace Infusion Manipulation:
Pace infusion is the manipulation of data by inserting figures into pace figures to find a statistical hot spot. WPS statistics from 500 random races were used to formulate this operation. Simply put, a dial was made to twist and turn the pace figures to eliminate the lowest possible win percentage horse and repeating the process until only one horse remained. With this process, we can find M/L favorites that will win around 40% of the time and 2nd choice faves that will win around 34%. This is good considering the average M/L fave will only win around 32% and the 2nd fave will only win around 22% of the time.
The rolling exotics are listed on the bottom section of the Fave sheet with the morning line favorite usually listed first with the other selections listed in the order of the most over average figures for their respective positions. If a horse does not have an over average figure, that horse in not included in the rolling exotics. Just because a horse does not have an over average figure, does not mean they can’t win, but they are definitely statistically challenged. There are occasions when all five horses qualify to be listed, but I have cut down to four to cheapen an exotic ticket. Rarely, will a single horse be listed in the rolling exotics, but if it is, it just might be the Ultimate Fave. Pace Manipulation selections are also considered in the rolling exotics, due to their excellent win percentages.
Hopefully, I have clearly explained and opened your mind a little on the idea behind this formulation and how the results are derived. One thing is for certain, a player that plays with a statistical edge will certainly cash more tickets and have a better grasp of the game than a hype or hunch player.
I would like to give a Special Thank You to my wife for putting up with all the headaches associated with this project.
Most of all, I want to give a Sincere Thank You to my old Handicapping and OTB Colleague Robert for giving me the inspiration to pursue this endeavor. Without his help presenting the Fave Sheets to his OTB Clientele and pointing out areas for improvement, Faveulator would be just a name and not the work that it is today! Thanks again, Teacher Richard
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